Yabancılar Her 2 Dolardan Birini Gayrimenkule Yatırdı

Yabancılar Her 2 Dolardan Birini Gayrimenkule Yatırdı

Türkiye’ye uluslararası sermaye girişi 2015 yılından sonra hızla gerilemeye başlayınca yabancıların ilgisini çekmek için “Vatandaşlık Promosyonu” devreye sokulmuştu. Resmi Gazete’nin 11 Ocak 2017 tarihli sayısında yayımlanarak yürürlüğe giren yönetmeliğe göre 2 milyon dolar yatırım yapan veya 1 milyon dolarlık ev alıp üç yıl süreyle satmayanlara başka bir şart aranmaksızın vatandaşlık hakkı veriliyor. Ayrıca en az 100 kişilik istihdam oluşturanlar, en az 3 milyon dolar tutarında mevduatı üç yıl Türkiye’de tutanlar veya en az 3 milyon dolar tutarındaki devlet borçlanma araçlarını üç yıl elinde bulunduranlar da vatandaşlık hakkı kazanabiliyor.

Yeni düzenlemenin üzerinden yaklaşık 11 ay geçti. Bu süre içerisinde vatandaşlık cazibesinin en çok gayrimenkul satışında etkili olduğu gözleniyor. Ocak-Eylül dönemine ait satışlar bu hızla devam ederse 2017 sonunda tüm yılların rekoru kırılabilir.

Ekonomi Bakanlığı’nın verilerine göre ilk dokuz ayda Türkiye’ye giren doğrudan yabancı sermayenin yarısı konut alımına gitti. Bir başka ifadeyle, yabancılar bu yıl Türkiye’ye getirdiği her 2 dolardan biri ile konut satın aldı. Geçen yılla kıyaslandığında yabancıların tercihindeki değişimin boyutu daha net görülebiliyor. 2016’nın ilk dokuz ayında Türkiye’ye 9 milyar 40 milyon dolarlık uluslararası doğrudan sermaye girişi olmuş ve bunun yüzde 32.58’ini oluşturan 2 milyar 946 milyon dolarlık bölümü gayrimenkule yatırılmıştı. Bu yıl aynı dönemde uluslararası sermaye girişi 7 milyar 340 milyon dolara gerilerken, gayrimenkul alımı 3 milyar 682 milyon dolara yükselerek toplam yabancı yatırımının yüzde 50.16’sına ulaştı. Böylece gayrimenkul satışı diğer alanlara giren yabancı sermayenin üzerine çıkmış oldu.

Türkiye tarihinde ilk kez böyle bir tablo ile karşılaşılıyor. Ancak bu rakamlar gayrimenkul satışı bakımından olumlu olsa da genel olarak yabancı yatırımlarda durum pek iç açıcı değil. 2016 yılının ilk dokuz ayında gayrimenkul dışındaki doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişi 6 milyar 94 milyon dolar düzeyindeyken bu yıl aynı dönemde 3 milyar 658 milyon dolara gerilemiş. Yaklaşık yüzde 40’lık düşüş var.

Doğrudan uluslararası yatırım girişlerine toplam üzerinden bakıldığında da olumlu seyrin bozulduğu açıkça görülüyor. Gayrimenkul dâhil yabancı yatırım girişi 2012 yılında 13 milyar 628 milyon dolar, 2013 yılında 12 milyar 896 milyon dolar, 2014 yılında 12 milyar 828 milyon dolar düzeyindeyken 2015 yılında ciddi bir sıçrama ile 17 milyar 550 milyon dolara yükselip 2016 yılında yaklaşık 5 milyar dolarlık kayıpla 12 milyar 771 milyon dolara gerilemiş. Bu yılın Ocak-Eylül döneminde gayrimenkuldeki rekor satışa rağmen toplam yabancı sermaye girişinin 7 milyar 340 milyon dolara düşmesi, yılsonunda altı yılın en kötü tablosuyla karşılaşma ihtimalini güçlendiriyor.

Buna karşılık yabancı sermaye girişi içindeki gayrimenkul miktarlarına baktığımızda karşımıza tırmanan bir grafik çıkıyor: 2012 yılında 2 milyar 636 milyon dolar, 2013 yılında 3 milyar 049 milyon dolar, 2014 yılında 4 milyar 321 milyon dolar, 2015 yılında 4 milyar 156 milyon dolar, 2016 yılında 3 milyar 890 milyon dolar. Bu yıl dokuz aylık dönemde gayrimenkul satışının 3 milyar 682 milyon dolara ulaşması, her üç ayda ortalama 1 milyar 200 milyon dolarlık alım gerçekleştiğini gösteriyor. Son üç ay için bu miktar eklendiğinde yılsonunda 5 milyar dolara yaklaşılıp rekor kırılması sürpriz olmayacak.

Gayrimenkul satışının rekora gitmesinde dövizdeki artışa paralel olarak konut fiyatlarının ucuzlaması, Orta Doğu’daki karışıklık, Türkiye’nin Müslüman ülke vatandaşları için yaşam tarzlarına müdahale edilmeyecek bir ülke olması gibi faktörlerin etkisi var. Nitekim son yıllarda Irak, Suriye, İran, Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan vatandaşlarının gayrimenkul alımında öne çıktığı gözleniyor.

Ekim ayı verilerine göre yabancıya konut satışı geçen yılın aynı ayına kıyasla yüzde 71 artarak 2 bin 677’ye ulaştı. Son 10 aylık döneme bakıldığında yabancılara konut satışının geçen yıla göre yüzde 21,3 artışla 14 bin 775’ten 17 bin 918’e ulaştığı görülüyor. Ekim ayında en çok konut satışının Suudi Arabistan vatandaşlarına yapılmış olması dikkat çekici. Suudiler 528 konut satın aldı. İkinci sırada 344 konut ile Irak vatandaşları var. Ekimde en çok satış yapılan beş ülke vatandaşları içerisinde 278 konut ile Azeriler, 154 konut ile Kuveytliler ve 125 konut ile Ruslar da bulunuyor.

Anadolu Ajansı’na bilgi veren konut üreticilerinden Özyurtlar Holding Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı Tamer Özyurt: “Körfez bölgesinde huzur ve istikrar bozuldukça güvenli bölge olan Türkiye’ye ilgi artıyor” derken, Konut Geliştiricileri ve Yatırımcıları Derneği Başkanı Altan Elmas son iki ayda yabancıya satışın artacağını söyledi.

Yurt içi ve yurt dışında konut satışına aracılık eden Nova Holding Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı Müjdat Güler ise son dönemde Suudilerin bloklar halinde konut aldığını, hatta bin konutluk büyük projelere üretici olarak girdiğini söyledi.

Güler’in Al-Monitor’a verdiği bilgi şöyle: “Suudların büyük potansiyeli var. Şu anda anormal mal alıyorlar. Suud’daki iç karışıklık Türkiye’de gayrimenkul ve diğer üretim alanlarına kapsamlı sermaye girişi sağlayacak. Bu yıl yabancılara 5 milyar dolarlık satış yaparız. Bizim orta gelir seviyesinin üzerindekilere yönelik satış programımız yok. Bu da ciromuzu aşağı çekiyor. Fiyatlarımız çok düşük. Eğer üst gelir seviyesindekileri hedeflersek Türkiye’de yabancılara gayrimenkul satış rakamlarının yılda 10-15-20 milyar dolara gitmesi mümkün.”

Orta Doğulu alıcılar için Türkiye’nin Müslüman ülke olarak cazibe yarattığını belirten Güler: “Burada konut alanlar ezan sesiyle, camisiyle, hayatın her parçasıyla kendi ülkesinde gibi yaşayabiliyor. Ayrıca Dubai’den konut alanlar vatandaş olamıyor ama Türkiye’de vatandaş olabiliyor. Bu bizim için büyük avantaj.” dedi.

Gerçekleşme ve beklentiler ışığında 2017 sonunda nasıl bir tablonun ortaya çıkacağını şimdiden tahmin etmek mümkün. Türkiye bu yılı gayrimenkul satışında rekorla kapatabilir ama gayrimenkul dışı yabancı sermaye girişinde durum çok kötü. Son altı yılın en düşük rakamı görülebilir

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/tr/originals/2017/12/turkey-middle-east-turmoil-boosts-housing-market.html#ixzz52Z4ikcOR

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