Asiye Nasil kurtulur….!!!

ASIYE ””’AMERIKA”” NASIL KURTULUR………!!!

Sari sacli , mavi gozlu kizimiz Amerika nasil kurtulur, bunu emlak piyasasindan bakarak irdelemek istedik, bugunku Haberlere baktigimizda bu guzel kizi dustugu durumdan kurtarmak mumkun gibi goruluyor.. Bunu sam amca yapamiyor , cunku bu kizin kotu yolu dusmesinden yararlanan , kriz tacirleri var, kriz ekonomisi kendi les kargalarini yaratti , devlette bu sisteme vermesi gereken tum destegi verdi ve halada vermeye devam ediyor..

Lesi yiyen Akbaba Bankacilar, Akbaba hukukcular, Akbaba emlakcilar, Akbaba yatirimcilar cikti ve ozellikle bunlar sosyal patlamaya sebebiyet verecek kadar isi ilerletiyorlar, hapishaneler agzina kadar dolu, her tarafta yeni hapishane yapiliyor, shelterlar agzina kadar dolu, kiliselerin onunde bedava yemek yiyen insanlar siraya girmis vaziyette ve en onemlisi Homeless’ler sokaklari doldurmus ve ustlerinden atlayarak gecerek yurudugunuz bir cok eyalet var…

Bunlarin hepsini cozecek olan Emlak sektoru Akbabalara ragmen gene en guvenilir yatirim araci olmaya aday gibi duruyor..

ABD’de ikinci el konut satislari Nisan ayinda da, vergi indirimi ve iyilesen tuketici guveninin sagladigi motivasyon ile, yukseldi. Tamamlanmis satislari gosten ikinci el konut satislari, Nisan ayinda mevsimsel etkilerden arindirilmis verilerle yuzde 7.6 artarak yillik bazda 5.77 milyon adete ulasti. Mart ayi verisi ise 5.36 milyon adet olarak revize edildi. Nisan ayinda satislar, gecen yilin ayni donemine gore yuzde 22.8 yukseldi. 2009 Nisan’da 4.70 milyon ikinci el konut satilmisti. Mart ayi satista artis orani ise revize veri sonrasi yuzde 7.0 oldu.

National Assocition of Realtors ekonomisti Lawrence Yun yaptigi aciklamada Nisan ayinda ikinci el konut satislarinda artisin genel olarak beklenen bir durum oldugunu, konut fiyatlarinin dengelenmesi, ekonominin iyilesmesi ve mortgage faizlerinin tarihi dusuk seviyelerde kalmaya devam etmesine bagli olarak su ana kadar kenarda bekleyen insanlarin, alici olarak piyasaya donmeye basladiklarini ifade etti. Nisan ayinda ortalama ikinci el konut satis fiyati 173.100 Dolar oldu. Fiyat, Nisan 2009’a gore yuzde 4.0 artti.

Genel satislarda % 7.6 satislarda artis oldugu gibi fiyatlardada % 4 luk aylik bir artis emlak piyasasinin iyilesmesinde oldugunun en belirgin gostergesidir… En onemli gosterde gecen seneye gore satislarin % 22.8 artmasidirki , normal uretimin 1.5 milyon oldugunu dusunursek son dort yilda uretiminde bunun cok altinda oldugundan burada bir acik olustu ancak pazara her yil giren 3 milyonluk icra evleri tum dengeleri degistirmektedir, ev satislarinda devlet piyasalari denetleme gorevini yapmaz ve kriz ekonomisinden buyuk yarar saglayan kesime yardim ederse, issizlik artacagi gibi, kredi kurumlarinin en buyuk musterisi olan ev ureticileri, ev alicilari pazarina kredi veremedikleri muddetce Finans kurumu dengelenemiyecek, ev uretimi artmazsa uretim dengelenemiyecek, araba pazari eski yerine gelemiyecek, 420 yan sektor calismazsa Amerikan ruyasi , Amerikan eziyeti olmaya devam edecektir, cozum kolaydir yeterki yukardaki basit rakamlari yorumlayabilecek Obamanin ekibinde hem ekonomi, hem tatbikat , hem ticaret, hem bankacilik hemde emlaki bilen insanlar olsun bunu bilenler olmadigi muddetce, kilavuzlarimiz isi bilmezse , Amerikanin isi cok zor gibi gozukuyor, sorunlar nereden basladiysa cozumlerde oradan baslamali, ev ekonomisini kurtarmadan , sokagi, issizleri, bankacilik sektorunu ve amerikayi kurtarmak mumkun degildir…

Yilda 5.7 milyon ev satilmasi ve hala bankalarda kredilerin kapali oldugu bir donemde insanlar bu kadar ev alabiliyorsa gercek piyasalar geri gelip

a. Ev fiyatlari daha nasilsa duser diye ev almayanlar ve alimi erteleyenler

b. Imigration reformu tamamlandiginda 14 milyon icinden ev alacak olanlar..

c. Avrupa’da bozulan ekonomiler ve yeni gelecek vergiler yuzunden daha guvenilir liman arayan global musteriler..

d. Faiz nisbetlerinin dusuk olmasi nedeniyle FHA loanlari alacak , kiradan daha dusuk mortgage odeyerek ev alacak olanlar , bu kesim kiralar dusuk diye ev alma taleplerini erteliyorlardi, ancak dusuk faizler ve fiyatlarin artiyor olmasi onlarin kararlarini ev alma yonunde kullanmalarini saglayacak, 165 milyon stok icinde kiracilarin sadece kucuk bir kismi bile pazara girse ev fiyatlari yukari cikacak..

Dunyadaki krizlerin basi Amerikaya konutlara kredi acmis Avrupa bankalarinda yasandi.. Hedge fonlar bu yuzden riske girdi bir cok banka bu yuzden batti…

Konut krizi bilincli olarakmi yaratildi diye dusunenler var, ancak bana gore Konut krizinde en onemli neden , Amerikanin gereginden fazla konut uretmesi ve bu uretimde satisi saglayan fiyat artislarini birakip, urun satmada zorlanan ve yillik kapasitesi 30 bin ev olan Lennar’in bir anda 50.000 ev/yil uretim sinirini gecmesi ve bu urunleri satmak icin fiyat kirmasi ile baslamistir, alici nasilsa dusuyor diyerek alimi erteleyince once Amerikada sonra dunyada kriz baslamistir..

Bu krizin simdi Ispanyaya geldigini goruyoruz , oradaki sorun daha yuksek uretim cok yuksek , issizlik cok yuksek , konut sektorunde iyilesme olmazsa Avrupada daha bir cok kriz gelecek ve en sonunda bu krizin merkezi Turkiye olacaktir..

Ilerdeki gunlerdeki siyasal krizler, referandum, secimin yaklasmasi ve muhalefet partilerinin devri sabiklar ve issizlik ve as sorunlarini gundeme tasimasi , hizli giden turkiye treninde sorunlarin olmasina neden olacak ve bundanda konut sektoru onemli olcude etkilenecektir..

Asiye’den bize ne demek durumunda olmayan dunya, birakalim bu devi diyecek durumda degil.. Asiyeyi kurtarmadan dunya Ekonomik sorunlari cozemiyecek..

Buyuyen cin ekonomisi bile , Amerika olmadan bir yere gelmesi mumkun degil ne yazikki…!

Dunya’yi kurtarmanin yolu , Asiye’yi kurtarmadan geciyor…!

Mayis 2011 Orlando

Mujdat guler

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