Sağlık Sorunu Hallolmadan Alınan Hiçbir Ekonomik Tedbir İşe Yaramayacaktır!

Değerli Arkadaşlar,
“Sağlık sorunu hallolmadan alınan hiçbir ekonomik tedbir işe yaramayacaktır”
Virüs temizlenmediği sürece:
– insanların ekonomiye olan güveni geri gelmeyecek
– iş yerleri açılamayacak
– insanlar normal hayatlarına dönüp eski tüketim alışkanlıklarına devam edemeyecekler.
2008 krizinde olduğu gibi Rauntlar dönerse ekonomik kriz derinleşecek.
1. Raunt: Hastalığın ortaya çıkardığı panik havası ve hızlıca alınan tedbirlerin arz ve talebe etkileri.
2. Raunt: Belirsizliğin ve paniğin talebi ve yatırımları etkilemesi.
3. Raunt: Talebin düşmesiyle firmaların nakit girdisinde problemler ve iflaslar.
4. Raunt: İşten çıkarmalar veya firmaların batması sonucu ortaya çıkan işsizlik.
5. Raunt: Şahısların gelirlerinde büyük düşüş. Kredilerin dönmemesi. Talebin daha da azalıp belirsizliğin daha da artması. Tekrar 2. Raunda dönüş.
Avrupa ve Amerika önce sağlık, sonra ekonomi modelini deniyor, Çin ise sağlık sorununu çözdü şimdi ekonomi diyor ve ekonomideki yaraları sarıp üretimi durmuş ülkelere mal satmaya başlayacak ve kaybettiği pazar payını daha fazla gelirlerle kapatmaya çalışacak.
Sağlıkla ilgili Avrupa ve Amerika ile ülkemiz şu anda Corona virüsle mücadele ediyor. İnsan ölümünü azaltmak en önemli meselelerden biri. Hasarları azaltmanın yolları için devletler ellerinden geleni yapıyor ve halkta kurallara uyarsa netice alınabilir.

Sosyal mesafe, toplu etkinliklerin iptali, okulların kapanması, ülkelerarası seyahatin kısıtlanması, ülke içi seyahatlerin kısıtlanması, toplu taşımanın kapanması, çalışma kısıtlaması…

Türkiye’de iyi bir sağlık teşkilatı ve iyi hastanelerin olması bir şans o acıdan mayıs ayında normal hayata dönmede sosyal mesafeyi koruyup, üretim hatlarını çalıştırıp, perakende ağını devreye almak gerekmekte.

Normal hayata dönmede Türkiye eğer haziran sonunu bulursa tatbikî hasar daha fazla olacaktır. Sonuçta kararı Sağlık komitesi, Cumhurbaşkanlığı ve Bakanlık’lar karar verecek bunda yerel yönetimlerinde katilimi, TOBB ve TÜSİAD ile Sendikalarında desteği ile tekrar hayata dönebiliriz. Krizi daha derinleştirmek sağlıktan daha önemli sorunları üretecektir. Canını kurtardığımız insanları açlığa, işsizliğe ve ekonomik bunalımların yarattığı cinnet ve travmalardan kurtarmalıyız. Devlet destekleri, hayırsever insanların destekleri, yerel yönetimlerin destekleri bunların hepsi çok iyi ve takdire şayan.

Ancak unutulmamalıdır ki, sorun çok ama çok büyük ve derinleşeceği için bu kaynakların aspirin tedavisinden öteye gidemeyeceği kesindir. Devlet bankaları çok büyük destekler verirken özel bankaların bu destek paketlerine yeterli kadar destek verememesinin en önemli nedeni bankalar yüksek faizle para topladılar, bunları ayni yüksek faizle satamadılar. Geri dönmeyen krediler oranı çok arttı. Finans sektörünün sorunları çok büyük, orada lastiği patlatırsak arabayı uçurumdan aşağıya düşürürüz. Endişeleri ve kaygıları daha fazla arttırmadan, sağlık tabikî mühim bir kişinin ölmesini bile kimse istemez ama bu evde kal olayına bir yerde son vermeliyiz. Aksi halde bunu çok uzatır ve devamlı üstüne bir 14 gün daha katarsak ekonomiyi zaten yoğun bakıma aldık onu da öldüreceğiz.

Müjdat GÜLER – 12 Mart 2020

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