Turkiye kuresel enerji piyasasinda yerini alabilir !!

Merkezi Londra’daki Küresel Kaynaklar Grubu Başkanı, uluslararası enerji uzmanı, ekonomist Mehmet Öğütçü, Türkiye’ye “2023 Enerji Yol Haritası ve Eylem Programı” hazırlamasını önererek, “Şuna kuvvetle inanıyorum ki, yeni şekillenmekte olan dünya düzeninde bulunduğu coğrafya, çevresindeki enerji arz zengini ülkeler ve 1 trilyon dolara yaklaşan GSMH’si dikkate alınırsa Türkiye enerjideki küresel ‘müesses nizam’ın yönetim kuruluna rahatlıkla girebilir” diye konuştu.Öğütçü, mevcut konjonktürde arz-talep dengesindeki istikrar nedeniyle petrol fiyatlarında ciddi bir yükseliş beklemediğini, doğal gazın ise “altın çağı”nı yaşadığı yönünde görüşün enerji piyasasına egemen olduğunu belirterek, “Petrolde bir arz sıkıntısı görünmüyor. Özellikle de önümüzdeki donemde Libya’nın piyasalara tamamen dönüşü 1.5 milyon varillik kaybı tekrar yerine oturtacak. Ancak bu geçici duruma aldanmamak lazım. Doğu Asya ve Batili Avrupa ekonomileri yeniden toparlanmaya geçerse, sınırlı kaynaklar nedeniyle denge arz aleyhine bozulacağı için 2012 sonundan başlayarak petrol fiyatları yeniden yükselme eğilimine girebilir” dedi.

DOĞAL GAZ GÜVENLİĞİ PETROLDEN DAHA ÖNEMLİ

Öğütçü, “Türkiye, aslında petrolden ziyade doğal gaz arz güvenliğine ve fiyatına ağırlık vermeli. Elektrik santrallerinin yarıdan fazlası doğal gaz ile çalışıyor ve her geçen yıl daha fazla gaz gerekecek. Bu nedenle, gazda arz güvenliğimizin güvenilir kaynaklardan, uygun fiyatlarda sağlanması sürdürülebilir büyüme bakımından çok önemli. Bu alanda tümüyle dışa bağımlıyız. Bu yıl sonunda toplam enerji ithal faturamız 50 milyar doları aşabilir” dedi.

Yurtdışında ve içinde enerji dünyasının önde gelen isimlerinden birisi olarak kabul edilen Mehmet Öğütçü, petrol ve doğal gaz fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaları, dünya çapında ulusal enerji “şampiyonu” yaratılmasını, Nabucco’nun geleceğini, jeopolitik kaymaları ve Türkiye’nin 2023 enerji vizyonunu ANKA’ya değerlendirdi. Daha önce Türk diplomatı, Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı yöneticisi, OECD Küresel Forumu Başkanı olarak da görev yapan Öğütçü geçtiğimiz aylarda Türk hükümeti tarafından dünyanın en büyük enerji teşkilatı olan Uluslararası Enerji Forumu’nun genel sekreterliğine aday gösterilmişti. Londra’da çokuluslu büyük bir enerji firmasının üst düzey yöneticiliğini yapan Öğütçü, yurtdışında ve içinde enerji dünyasının önde gelen isimlerinden bir olarak kabul ediliyor. Son kitabı, “2023 Türkiye Yol Haritası” ile hükümet ve iş dünyasının liderlerine geleceğe dönük vizyonunu sundu.

PETROL 70 DOLARIN ALTINA İNMEZ

Mehmet Öğütçü, petrol fiyatlarının izlemekte olduğu seyir konusunda “Yıl sonuna kadar büyük bir fiyat oynaması beklenmiyor. Varil başına Brent fiyatı halihazırda 114, WTI fiyatı ise 88 dolar civarında. Avrupa ve ABD fiyatları arasında 26 dolarlık bir makas var. Finansal piyasalardaki kriz derinleşip ekonomik gerilemeye dönüşürse petrol fiyatları da talep daralması nedeniyle, biraz daha düşebilir, ama 70-75 doların altına inmesi de bu yüksek maliyet ortamında o fiyatta kimse üretime yatırım yapmak istemeyeceği için eşyanın tabiatına aykırıdır. Şu anda piyasada petrol arzı sıkıntısı yok. Suudi Arabistan yedek kapasitesini kullanarak petrol üretimini arttırıyor. IEA üyesi ülkeler stratejik rezerv olarak tuttukları stokları piyasaya sürüyorlar. Libya’da rejim değişikliği sonrasında piyasalara süratle dönecek. Spekülatörlerin müdahalesine rağmen fiyatta hala yukarı doğru ciddi kımıldama görülmüyor” değerlendirmesinde bulundu. Öğütçü, petrol piyasasında oluşan mevcut görünüme aldanmamak gerektiğini belirterek, “Azalan enerji yatırımları yılbaşından itibaren etkisini göstermeye başlayabilir. Özellikle de stratejik stokların eridiği bir dönemde 2012 ilkbaharından başlayarak ekonomilerin yeniden canlanması ile birlikte petrol arzının yetersiz kalması ve fiyatların yeniden yükselişe geçmesi şaşırtıcı olmayabilir. Orta ve uzun vadede şu sıralar ciddi hareketlilik göstermeyen Çin, Hindistan ve Brezilya talep artış bayrağını önde taşımaya devam edecekler. Neticede, yıl sonuna kadar beklenmedik doğal ya da siyasi bir kriz çıkmazsa, fiyatların mevcut düzeyini koruyacağını düşünüyorum. Libya da rejim değişikliği sonrasında piyasalara süratle dönecek” dedi.

DOĞAL GAZ ALTIN ÇAĞINA GİRMİŞ GÖRÜNÜYOR

Enerjinin ikinci önemli kaynağını oluşturan doğal gaz sektörünün kritik önemine de dikkat çeken Öğütçü şu bilgileri verdi:

“Doğal gaz eskiden geçiş sürecinin yakıtı olarak görülürdü. Bu değişti. IEA’ye bakılırsa doğalgaz ‘altın çağına’ girdi ve dünya enerji denkleminin değişmez unsuru haline geliyor. Özellikle Kuzey Amerika’daki shale gaz devrimi, LNG’nin bollaşması, nükleer rönesansın darbe yemesi, yenilenebilir enerjinin ağır sübvansiyon gereksinimi nedeniyle şimdilik geri plana itilmesi, temiz yakıt olarak bilinen doğal gazın yıldızını daha da parlatıyor. Hala büyük ölçüde petrol fiyatlarına endeksli ama tedricen kendi fiyatlama mekanizmasını kuracak. Ham petrol fiyatlarının bu düzeyde devam etmesi halinde gaz alım fiyatlarına da yansıyabilir ve bir iyileşme söz konusu olabilir. Ancak döviz kurunun artması indirim ihtimalini zora sokuyor.”

DOĞAL GAZ PETROLDEN DAHA FAZLA DİKKAT İSTİYOR

Doğal gaza petrolden daha fazla dikkat gerektiğini vurgulayan Öğütçü, “Zira göbeğimizden bağlıyız ithalata. Elektrik üretiminde doğal gazın payı yüzde 50’yi geçti. Kışa girerken hanelerde kullanılan gaz tüketiminin de artması bekleniyor. 2014’den itibaren bazı sözleşmeler sona eriyor. Hızla artan gaz talebi yeni kaynaklar arayışını da hızlandırmalı. Gaz arz güvenliği enerji gündeminin en önemli konularından birisi. Azerbaycan, İran gazına Türkmenistan ve Irak Kürdistanı’nın gazı da ilave edilirse, LNG ile birlikte, gaz portföyümüz önemli ölçüde çeşitlenecek. Ve Gazprom nezdinde müzakere yeteneğimiz elimizi güçlenecektir” dedi.

SADECE ENERJİ İTHAL FATURASI BU YIL 50 MİLYAR DOLARI BULUR

Türkiye’nin enerji stratejisinin oturması gereken sacayaklarına da dikkat çeken Öğütçü bu konuda şunları söyledi:

“Enerji, ekonomimizin atardamarı. Onsuz çarklar dönmüyor ve halihazırda dışa bağımlılığımız son derece yüksek düzeylerde; petrolde yüzde 92, doğalgazda yüzde 98 dışa bağımlıyız. Dolayısıyla, uluslararası piyasalardaki enerji fiyat dalgalanmaları anında yansıyor ülke ekonomisine. Sadece enerji ithalat faturası bu yılın sonuna kadar enerji ithalat faturası 50 milyar doları bulacak gibi. Daha uzun yıllar enerjide kendi kendine yeterlilik kazanmamız mümkün değil.Bu nedenle hem ülke içindeki yerel enerji kaynaklarını hem de dış kaynakları dikkate alan, dünyadaki mevcut ve gelecek enerji dinamiklerini de göz ardı etmeyen sağlam bir uzun vadeli enerji politikası inşasına ihtiyacımız var. Beş sacayağı üzerine oturacak bir politika arz güvenliği temini, enerji verimliliğinin arttırılması, yeni enerji teknolojilerine yatırım, iklim değişimi ve çevreye hassasiyet ve enerji projelerine maliyeti dünya ortalamasını geçmeyecek finansman imkanı sağlanmasını içermeli.”

NABUCCO 10 YILDIR GÖSTERİMDE, AMA SIKINTILARI VAR

Türkiye’nin enerji koridorundaki konumu açısından büyük önem taşıyan ve akıbeti konusunda tartışmaların sürdüğü Nabucco projesine de değinen Öğütçü, şu değerlendirmeyi yaptı:

“Nabucco, biliyorsunuz, AB’nin desteklediği üç ayrı Güney Enerji Koridorundan birisi. 31 milyar metreküplük kapasitesi ile en büyüğü ve bağımsız ihracat boru hattı inşası gerektirmesi nedeniyle de en pahalısı. En önemli sıkıntısı da neredeyse 10 yıldır gösterimde olmasına rağmen hala ona özel olarak tahsis edilmiş gaz arzının olmaması, maliyetinin yüksekliği ve ortakları arasında tam görüş birliği sağlanamaması olarak açıklanabilir. Ekim ayında Azerbaycan’da Şah Deniz-II gazının en iyi teklifi veren projeye satılması söz konusu. Sonra da bu gazın uygun transit düzenlemelerle Türkiye üzerinden Güneydoğu Avrupa’ya ulaştırılması gündeme gelecek.”

Mehmet Öğütçü, Nabucco’nun gerçekten Türkiye’nin menfaatlerine hizmet edip etmediği konusunun çok iyi değerlendirilmesi gereğine işaret ederek, “Burada ilk sorulması gereken konu, Türkiye’nin giderek yükselmekte olan kendi doğal gaz gereksiniminin bir kısmının bu hat üzerinden sağlanması mı, yoksa AB’nin gaz ikmal güvenliği kaygıları mı öne geçecek sorusudur. İkinci konu, transit geçecek gazın ülke ekonomisine net katkısı ne olacak, bırakacağı geçiş tarifesi ve varsa sağlayacağı siyasi yarar ürkütülen kurbağaya değecek mi, sorusudur. Bu sorulara inandırıcı yanıtlar gerekiyor” dedi.

NABUCCO BİR GÜN TAMAMLANIR MI?

Nabucco projesinin hızı konusunda da değerlendirmeler yapan Öğütçü şunları söyledi:

“Önümüzdeki Ekim ayında dananın kuyruğunun kopması bekleniyor. Nabucco dışındaki diğer iki Güney Enerji Koridoru projesi: ITGI ve TAP. Benim tahminim bu rekabet eden üç projeden en mütevazi olanı 8 milyar metreküp taşıyacak olan ITGI. 10 milyar kapasiteli TAP da realistik görünüyor. Arz sorununu bir turlu çözemeyen Nabucco ise 15 milyar Euro’luk bağımsız boru hattı. İnşa faturası ve 31 milyar metreküp arz gereksinimi ile bu aşamada pek cazip gelmiyor. Özellikle de projenin finansını üstlenecek kurumlara. Gazprom’un Avrupa pazarındaki tekelini kırmaya hizmet edecek alternatif bir güzergahı Moskova’nın eli kolu bağlı seyretmeyeceği de aşikar.”

TPAO YENİDEN YAPILANDIRILMALI

Enerji uzmanı Öğütçü, Türkiye’nin kendi enerji şampiyonlarını yaratması gerektiği görüsünü yineleyerek TPAO’nun yeniden yapılandırılması gereği üzerinde şu değerlendirmeyi yaptı:

“Türkiye kaynaklı ve uluslararası rekabet gücüne sahip bölgesel enerji devleri yaratacak adımları artık gecikmeksizin atmalıyız. Bu çerçevede, öncelikle çok köklü bir kuruluş olan TPAO’yu yeni bir kurumsal kimlik altında THY ve uluslararası başarılı modellere uygun şekilde yeniden yapılandırmak gerekiyor. Petrobras, Petronas, PetroChina, SOCAR, ENI, Aramco gibi nispeten başarılı ulusal/uluslararası petrol ve doğal gaz şirketlerinin uygulamalarını iyi incelemek şart. Hedef, hem 2023’e kadar ülkemizin petrol ve doğal gaz ikmal güvenliğini mümkün olduğunca yerel ve çevremizdeki kaynaklardan temin etmek, aynı zamanda yurtiçi ve yurtdışı karlı enerji yatırımlarını, ticaretini üstlenmeyi hedefleyen güçlü ulusal ‘enerji şampiyonları’ yaratmak. Başta TPAO olmak üzere onları önümüzdeki on yıldan önce bölgesel, daha sonra önde gelen küresel enerji devlerine dönüştürmeyi hedeflemeliyiz. Dünya Bankası, IEA ve Avrupa Birliği bize bu konularda bazı yararlı tavsiyeler sunuyor, ama sonuçta enerji tüm dünyada stratejik bir sektör ve bu konuda son sözü biz söylemeliyiz. Uluslararası şirketler gibi çalışacak, buna göre yapılandırılmış, finansman modeli, insan sermayesi sorunu çözümlenmiş, oturtulmuş ama devletin stratejik ağırlığını hiçbir zaman kaybetmeyeceği bir yeni tasarıma acilen ihtiyaç var. Özel sektörün dinamizmini de arkamıza alacak şekilde. Tek başına TPAO’yu enerji şampiyonu yapmak yetmez. BOTAŞ’ın özellikle boru hattı varlıkları ile TPAO’nun doğal gaz ve petrol üretimi arasındaki ilintiyi iyi kurmak ve dikey entegrasyonu sağlamak da çok önemli. Böylece, TPAO ve BOTAS hem ülkenin bölge diplomasisindeki en önemli güç araçları arasında yer alır, hem ulke ekonomisine ciddi katkı sağlar, hem de küresel enerji oyuncuları arasına girmemize zemin hazırlarlar. Aynı şey elektrikte de söz konusu.”

UZUN VADELİ MANZARA NASIL OLMALI?

Öğütçü, enerji projelerine dünya ortalamalarına yakın finansman imkanları sunmak, bölgede petrol ve doğal gaz varlıkları satın almak amacıyla başlangıçta yerli ve yabancı kaynaklardan oluşacak 30 milyar Euro’luk “Türkiye Enerji Yatırım Fonu” oluşturulmasını gereğine işaret etti. Öğütçü, “Hükümetin 2023 vizyonu çerçevesinde baktığınızda enerjide uzun vadeli manzara nasıl olmalı” sorusuna da şu karşılığı verdi:

“Şayet Türkiye 12 yıl sonraki hedeflerine ulaşmada ciddiysek tüm diğer sektörlerin de itici motoru olan enerjiye özel bir önem atfetmek zorundayız. Enerjide bugün atılacak adımlar, yapılacak yatırımlar semeresini en erken 10 yıl sonra veriyor. Enerji arzını arttıracak, verimliliği iyileştirecek, temiz enerji ekonomisine geçişi sağlayacak, yeni enerji teknolojilerine kaynak akıtacak, yurtdışında enerji üretimini teşvik edecek, dünya çapında rekabet gücüne sahip kendi ulusal enerji şampiyonlarını yaratacak, jeopolitik dinamikleri de ihmal etmeyecek politikaları gecikmeksizin yürürlüğe koymak, etkili şekilde onların icrasını takip etmek zorundayız. Siyasi iradenin en yüksek düzeyde bu vizyona ve onun uygulanma mekanizmalarına sahip çıkması, yönetime gereken desteği ve kaynakları tahsis etmesi elzemdir. Ancak şunu da unutmamak gerekir ki, 2023 vizyonu ve onun uygulanması tek başına hükümetin altından kalkabileceği bir çaba değil.”
Mehmet Ogutcu

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